by Yasser Latif Hamdani
A popularly-elected secular government in Islamabad — which shares several broad objectives with the US in Afghanistan and the greater Muslim world — is being pressurized by an unthinking coterie of policy planners in Washington. A secular mass movement for constitution, democracy and independent judiciary threatens to become a Khomeniesque Islamic revolution of 1979 if the present wave of anti-Americanism subsists. Increased Allied pressure on Pakistan will virtually seal it. Those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it.
Slain Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party leads a coalition that brings together center left and center right with the marginalized ethno-nationalist forces serving as a counterweight to Islamist forces in the NWFP. It has entered into peace negotiations with the Taliban forces and, consequently, the ratio of one suicide bombing a day in Pakistan has decreased. To now try and undo it by having the Afghan President send out threats- which in any event are a violation of international law – means that the myopia has set in somewhere. The Afghan president is in a precarious position. In his own country, Karzai has various monikers: the “palace president”, the “mayor of Kabul” and even the derogatory “mouse-President”. It is unlikely that his government would survive even a single day without the Allied help. Therefore, backing him against a legitimate and popular government in Pakistan which promises to put a long-term sustainable secular democratic order- the kind envisaged by its founding father- in place is akin to being penny wise pound-foolish. Doing so would also be to the detriment of the lawyers’ movement which aims at strengthening Pakistan’s judiciary and constitution.
The success of Pakistan’s democracy is the only guarantee for a secure and generally positive future for all concerned, especially the long term rational US interests in the region.
Remember the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is a long and porous border and, as Dan McNeil, a thinking US General, pointed out, the Afghan government has made a habit of misdirecting the cause of its own failure to establish its writ. There are tribes out there for whom the border has no significance. The Pakistani half of the Shinwari tribe, for example, exchanges places with its Afghan half every three years. Does that make them Afghan or Pakistani? These fellows are fiercely independent and unfettered by any government or authority. Nor does any government – including Pakistan – have a legal right to subdue them. Before Pakistan’s independence, Britain had a flaky hold on the region all throughout the period that it carried out counter-insurgency operations against the forces of Fakirs of Ipi and Waziristan. It is for this reason that Pakistan’s first government had carried out the famous “Operation Curzon” – withdrawal of all troops- as early as 1948, which reversed one half-century of British adventurism in the tribal areas. That one move won over the tribal people of Pakistan despite their hostility to a central government. Perhaps it is time for the NATO war planners to hit the history books. Indiscriminate bombing of these areas will achieve pathetically little and certainly contribute nothing to the war on terror. Instead it is important to realize that these people have much the same aspirations as anyone else in the world- they all want a better life, health facilities and education for their children. If they got radicalized, it was because they fought an epic struggle against the Soviet Union on the West’s behalf. Bombs are very poor substitutes for severance pay.
And for all the discussion on the topic, the war on terror has already been won. Surprised? It was won as early as 2002. The terror network of Al Qaeda stood smashed and there hasn’t been a single successful terrorist attack on the US soil. A perceptive historian in the future will look back and note that in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, America had for the first time in decades the sympathies of all people around the world including Muslims. In the Muslim world, most liberals, conservatives and even fundamentalists were united in their condemnation of the terrorist attacks on the US soil. The feeling did not subside as the US moved into Afghanistan and dismantled the brutal Taliban regime that had oppressed its own people. While protests by Islamists were highlighted by the world media, more often than not these were a few hundred people protesting and burning the US flag. All in all, Muslim governments had firm control over the extremists helped in no small part by the outpouring of sympathy for the victims of 9/11. Six years later, the situation has changed dramatically. There has never been a time in its history that US has been more unpopular in the greater Muslim world. It is this unpopularity that feeds new obscurantist and extremist forces.
It is a war that the US won but is now losing by getting bogged down in “hot pursuit”.
Yasser Latif Hamdani is a lawyer based in Islamabad.
15 Comments
July 1, 2008 at 7:11 pm
What do you suggest the Americans do when their troops get killed in Afghanistan by people who cross the border from Pakistan?
Do you want Pakistan to disown FATA or give an open invitation to NATO to attack?
July 2, 2008 at 2:12 am
The people killing American soldiers are indigenous Afghans whether Karzai admits it or not.
As for your question at the end, it is a contradiction isn’t it. I have already suggested what should or shouldn’t be done.
July 2, 2008 at 11:06 am
I think it was a report by the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) that found that over 50% of the suicide bombers in Afghanistan, if not Pakistani by origin, were at least “recruited and trained” in Pakistan.
Nobody really knows what the Pakistani Taliban IS, or what kind of links it has to the Afghan Taliban. Or even to al-Qaeda. Using names of these three groups interchangeably is dangerous. Linking the Pakistani Taliban up with al-Qaeda suggests Pakistan is the new launchpad for a global jihad on Crusaders (thus inviting US drone planes to violate its territory.) There is little evidence of that, especially since the Pakistani Taliban appears to be more of an indigenous “movement” limited to attacking Pakistani security forces or banning bollywood ringtones on cellphones! Does their agenda also include crossing the border over to Afghanistan to attack NATO troops? Is that part of their ideology, and even if it is, do they have the manpower to fight a domestic war with Pak SFs AND send their militants to go fight in Afghanistan?
What does the fact that very few foreign nationals have been killed in Pakistan say? (Even when the target was “western” as in the case of the Danish embassy bomb blast, it was Pakistanis who died. Everybody knew the most Danes had been withdrawn from the embassy months ago.) The militancy in Pakistan seems to be more of a domestic affair, entangled with internal politics. There is little evidence that it is, or can be, a threat to the big bad West.
July 2, 2008 at 5:48 pm
I absolutely agree with Qadeel, there is over whelming evidence that Afghanistan is being infiltrated from Pakistan.
There is evidence that Pakistani ISI has been the long supporter of the groups which have either become “Al Qaida” or “Pakistani Taliban”, or which have acted as “recruitment” grounds for these two organization.
From there activities, the analyst have long doubted weather Pakistani agencies have cut off their relationships with these groups as Pakistan has been claiming.
for many years Musharaff had actually protected these organizations, in Pakistan, allowing them to operate under new names. From Lashker e Islam to Lashker e Ansar, all these groups were ISI clients.
A line of arguments also suggest that Red Mosque uprising and Suicide bomb wave actually is a “split” in Pakistan’s security agencies, where old Islamist section was actually fueling all this.
Mush acknowledge role of “certain retired generals”, in insurgency . One just has to look at Lawyers movement marches to see one such Retired General, who Bhutto also named as her possible murderer in that letter to General Mush
July 2, 2008 at 9:29 pm
I fully agree with Sherryx, though I am not sure she has read all of Qandeel’s post.
The dominant discourse in Pakistan goes something like this: Why do we have to kill our own people? It is all Mush’s fault that he accepted the US war on terror. America created Taliban. And, in many round about ways, lots of descriptive chatter.
This dominant discourse fails to answer the question of Where do we go from here? Fails to see the scene from the US pov and NATO pov.
Let me say it here, it’s either Pakistan or Taliban. If it should be Taliban, then the country should be ready for a situation that would make the Afghan civil war look like ‘Micky Mouse toss salad’.
July 3, 2008 at 2:28 am
There is absolutely no such evidence. You can go on making arbitrary distinctions but to close your eyes to the fact that violence goes on in provinces not even remotely connected to Pakistan shows how shallow such claims are.
Terrorism in Afghanistan is an Afghan issue and Dan Mcneil -the US general- pooh poohed this propaganda that the Afghan govt has launched to cover up its own short comings.
The fact of the matter is that Afghan govt -despite help from NATO- has been unable to establish its writ and is the municipal government of Kabul.
July 3, 2008 at 2:30 am
“Banning bollywood ringtones”
Ha ha ok. Maybe you forgot that Karzai’s govt. recently banned Bollywood movies altogether. So that is neither here nor there.
July 3, 2008 at 10:45 am
Sherryx, I wasn’t suggesting that there is overwhelming evidence… infact I think research on the matter is woefully inadequate. This is mainly due to problems with identifying the bodies of suicide bombers (because how else can you know whether they are Pakistani? Or what militant group they are linked to?) I mentioned the UNAMA report because it is one fo the few “empirical” works of its kind; it interviewed “failed” suicide bombers in Afghanistan and found that most of them had passed through or were brainwashed in madrassas in Pakistan. Also, it was reported in (I think) Dawn recently that Baitullah’s men were found dead in Afghanistan in the aftermath of an attack by coalition forces there.
So this points to the possible involvement of Pakistani militants in Afghanistan. But again, you need more evidence before you can condone foreign drones swarm about in your territory. And if the US has hard-hitting intelligence to justify its attacks, I would like to know about it so that I – and millions of Pakistanis who are increasingly feeling embittered towards what they perceive to be an unjust act – are somewhat mollified.
YHL, I’m not exactly in disagreement with you. I was generally speaking about the dangers of confusing Pakistani Taliban with al-Qaeda or other groups. The distinction should be made so that Pakistanis know that they are fighting a domestic terror monster. And so that the outside world knows that militancy in Pak is a domestic problem and that they should perhaps stay out of it.
July 3, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Yasser Latif
I am deeply glad that finally a word from a thinking and well read source and delighted that source is Pakistani.
Would like to congratulate you on the historical facts and geographical strategic mature writing.
Just to set the record straight for the comentaters
Pakistan is not involved into training or providing a heaven to terorists.We have handed over people wanted by International world.
Secondly we are a muslim state,it is difficult for us to keep people away from Kashmir,Iran and Afghanistan because these countries are our friends.People have intermarriages and shrines on both sides of borders.
These routes and relations are millions of years old.
We have forgotten that English Troops were exhausted and could not conquer these teritories , this landscape is harsh in itself.That is why America needs us.
In the past Pakistan Government was not acting alone to help Mujahedeen it was American policy and way to stop Russia.
Now can we stop blaming ourselves and Pakistan Army for every idea and criticism which is said about us in the International press.
July 4, 2008 at 11:58 am
Though i dont want to go into debate on evidence, at least a ton load of books have been published , lets keep it simple:
1, We know that during the Afghan Jihad our security apparatus had built a resistence, does credible evidence exist that the links have been severed
2, After the Afghan Jihad, a class of professional Jihadis , was utilized in Kashmiri Jihad , directly funded by ISI and Jihadi religio-political groups who had government direct patronage. We know for major part of General Musharaf these groups were allowed to safely hibernate. Does credible evidence exist that they have been abondoned? especially when Gazi brothers were being protected in Red Mosque by Ijaz ul Haq , minister in Mush regime
3. Have Pakistani agencies stopped there tactic of supporting splinter groups of jihadis, using them and than killing them, or setting them up against each other, evidence suggest other wise, Mangal Bag, the character of latest “Bara operation” is on record and “Lashker e Ansar” has been set up by Pakistani government against his “Lashkar e Islam”. we know Ansar had long links with Pakistani agencies
4. How many Al Qaidia and Taliban figures have been arrested from Pakistan during the last few years.
5. our government and political parties opposing the government have acknowledge many times that Al Qaida and Taliban have bases in Pakistan’s tribal belt. we are engaged in operation there
The simple question is if Al Qaida and Taliban are not infiltrating Afghanistan, what are they doing? giving ders e Koran??
what is their strategic goal ? basing themselves on Afghan border???/
July 4, 2008 at 12:07 pm
As far as the claim of “violence” being present in areas geographically distant from Pakistan.
Can it be a justifiable line of action? When a motivated terrorist enters a coutry, who looks the same and speaks the same language, have the same ethinicity. Is this arguement valid?.
All the discourse that have emerged on security policy and theory, after 9/11 speaks of “international terrorism”, its a terrorism which is not linked with geographical constraints. Thats what Al Qaida is, the changed face of terror
Lets for a second accept this line of reasoning, diffirent opinions exist, Afrasiab Khatak , leading human rights activist and member of ruling ANP is on record, telling in detail, that the structural base of all terrorism are areas on border of Pakistan. He infact said that Pakhtoon areas , which are fartherest from Pakistan are least involved. he will use a chart with all activity detail , mapping the whole red zone—
Ahmad Rashid , has long maintained, and written on Pakistan dual dealing with Taliban—-
July 5, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Poor Lal Masjid… stigmatized to death. Like Monica Belluci in that film Malèna. Jaish-e-Mohammad, a banned militant group, openly holds conferences in Bahawalpur that are star-studded with militants and nobody does anything. Lal Masjid students burn a few DVDs and occupy a library armed with nothing but lathis and there’s a commando raid (killing hundreds, mostly innocent).
Just wanted to mention that because I feel bad for LM.
And because we should be able to seperate people with “radical” views from people who’re actual terrorists.
But of course you’re right, the military-mullah alliance goes a long way back. What we see now might just be the military at loggerheads with certain segments of the militant network. Both sides trying to show off their muscles. Again, domestic affair.
I’m just not ready to accept that because al-Libi was supposedly killed on Pakistani soil, this implies that FATA and PATA are the new hotbeds for al-Qaeda activities. Or because Maulana Fazlullah is as camera-shy as Mullah Omar means that they’re all working together on an operational level.
July 6, 2008 at 7:50 am
We must under understand Red Mosque, it was bastion of ISI most favored Jihadis, Molana Abdulla , father of Gazi brothers was given a “Messianic” status for the Jihadis by General Muhammed Zia ul Haq, he was one of General’s key stones in building the Jihadi culture in Pakistan. He was Pir of most of the Jihidi groups. He was also one of the most important player to built General’s lethal weapon against the progressive movement in Pakistan, the Anti-Shia sectarianism. Red Mosque was being operated as a family fiefdom , a rabid anti shia bastion.
Abdulla was killed , probably in the sectarian fire he himself helped in spreading.
Than both brothers came under the wings of Ijaz ul Haq and Hameed Gul. They provided refuge to sectarian murderers, and were protected by ministers.
Even few months before their death, they were frequent visitors to ISI head quarters. The whole drama was written by the agencies, who had asked Gazi brothers to carry on, and they trusted them, the Burqa episode of Aziz is a example that even on that crucial time, they had open and direct links with authorities and they trusted them. Plan changed because of the secular forces who in the final days were able to shift the public opinion and international opinion against Mush govt .
Than it was decided to save one and kill another.
The girls, were poor victim of Gazi brothers and Pakistan Army
July 6, 2008 at 7:52 am
and its not the matter on one being caught, its a state within state, they run courts, chop the heads of dozens, collect taxes, and capture hundreds of Pak Army men and they get caught without firing a single bullet, interesting eh?
SA
February 11, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Before fighting insurgency and terrorism, we must know how it arises. I just stumbled upon a good article from a pakistani journalist at daily Jang at:
http://smartfoundation.wordpress.com/
Like how the scores of poor Pakistanis in southern side of punjab province had been fed to afghan war and now being fed into the hands of foreign powers.
We should address the root cause. To eliminate the basic factors like hunger, un employment, deprivation, etc.