By Yasser Latif Hamdani
The 2008 General Election promises that, if held freely and fairly and that is a big if, it can turn out to be a landmark in Pakistan’s history not just for the importance Pakistan has today in world affairs but because the complete rout of theocratic politics it promises to bring forth. For the first time since the introduction of the “Islamic” constitution of 1973, these elections promise to be fought around an agenda that has to do with democracy and social welfare.
In all likelihood, there are five parties that promise to dominate these elections: Pakistan People’s Party Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz group Awami National Party and Mutahidda Qaumi Movement. Out of these PPP, PML-Q and PML-N claim to be national and federal parties. A curious alliance of landed gentry, left-leaning city intellectual and to a certain extent secular-minded Pakistani nationalists, PPP’s claim is the strongest as it has a significant electoral base in Sindh and Punjab with smaller but resilient pockets in NWFP and Balochistan. PPP has fielded 778 candidates in National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan and will win with 100-135 seats in the National Assembly. It will win a majority in Sindh and will be the third largest party in Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan.
PML-Q- which is the re-incarnation of the age-old Unionist Party- is like the PPP an uneasy alliance of some right wingers, land owners and industrialists and a smattering of progressives all backed by the establishment- has a strong base in Punjab but smaller yet significant support in the rest of the provinces. It has fielded close to 600 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. The party will win 65- 95 seats in the National Assembly, largest Party in Punjab. It promises to be the largest or second largest Party in Balochistan with significant positions in Sindh and NWFP. PML-N is the party of the right-leaning city folk and some land lords with small but strong pockets of support in all four provinces but with a main support base in North Punjab. It has fielded close to 500 candidates for National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. will win 35-70 seats in the National Assembly. It may end up as the second largest Party in Punjab and NWFP and third largest party in Sindh.
What is encouraging however is that all three parties have put on their manifestoes a commitment to Jinnah’s Pakistan- a federal and democratic state where minorities and women would have equal rights. PPP and PML-Q have concentrated at length on “Quaid-e-Azam’s Pakistan” and his vision, which strangely enough is a first in our recent history- believe it or not. For the most part, Jinnah’s vision of a secular Pakistan has been omitted from our election manifestoes in the past. While both these parties have not gone so far as to use the word “secular” which is considered a bad word by some in Pakistan, they have spoken of equal rights, impartiality and equal opportunity which is good enough. All three parties have committed themselves to a modern and forward looking polity committed to eradicating social distinctions and disparity by including the marginalized groups.
ANP has emerged as a regional and ethnic party committed to the federation of Pakistan which it feels should be inclusive and secular. It has fielded only 142 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies predominantly in NWFP and pushtun dominated areas of Karachi and Balochistan. It will win 5-20 seats in the National Assembly. MQM- the party of the Urdu-speaking descendants of the migrants from India in 1947, has – in the past few years- tried to reinvent itself as a federal, secular and democratic party- an image that took a major setback with May 12 tragedy. In these elections it is seeking to show its humane face to the world. MQM is backing Musharraf to show the west that it is committed to fight Islamic extremism more than anyone else in Pakistan. It has fielded 330 odd candidates all over Pakistan in the National and Provincial assemblies. It is likely to win 10-25 seats in the National Assembly and will probably be the second largest party in Sindh.
In all likelihood, there are five parties that promise to dominate these elections: Pakistan People’s Party Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam, Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz group Awami National Party and Mutahidda Qaumi Movement. Out of these PPP, PML-Q and PML-N claim to be national and federal parties. A curious alliance of landed gentry, left-leaning city intellectual and to a certain extent secular-minded Pakistani nationalists, PPP’s claim is the strongest as it has a significant electoral base in Sindh and Punjab with smaller but resilient pockets in NWFP and Balochistan. PPP has fielded 778 candidates in National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan and will win with 100-135 seats in the National Assembly. It will win a majority in Sindh and will be the third largest party in Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan.
PML-Q- which is the re-incarnation of the age-old Unionist Party- is like the PPP an uneasy alliance of some right wingers, land owners and industrialists and a smattering of progressives all backed by the establishment- has a strong base in Punjab but smaller yet significant support in the rest of the provinces. It has fielded close to 600 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. The party will win 65- 95 seats in the National Assembly, largest Party in Punjab. It promises to be the largest or second largest Party in Balochistan with significant positions in Sindh and NWFP. PML-N is the party of the right-leaning city folk and some land lords with small but strong pockets of support in all four provinces but with a main support base in North Punjab. It has fielded close to 500 candidates for National and provincial assemblies of Pakistan. will win 35-70 seats in the National Assembly. It may end up as the second largest Party in Punjab and NWFP and third largest party in Sindh.
What is encouraging however is that all three parties have put on their manifestoes a commitment to Jinnah’s Pakistan- a federal and democratic state where minorities and women would have equal rights. PPP and PML-Q have concentrated at length on “Quaid-e-Azam’s Pakistan” and his vision, which strangely enough is a first in our recent history- believe it or not. For the most part, Jinnah’s vision of a secular Pakistan has been omitted from our election manifestoes in the past. While both these parties have not gone so far as to use the word “secular” which is considered a bad word by some in Pakistan, they have spoken of equal rights, impartiality and equal opportunity which is good enough. All three parties have committed themselves to a modern and forward looking polity committed to eradicating social distinctions and disparity by including the marginalized groups.
ANP has emerged as a regional and ethnic party committed to the federation of Pakistan which it feels should be inclusive and secular. It has fielded only 142 candidates in the National and provincial assemblies predominantly in NWFP and pushtun dominated areas of Karachi and Balochistan. It will win 5-20 seats in the National Assembly. MQM- the party of the Urdu-speaking descendants of the migrants from India in 1947, has – in the past few years- tried to reinvent itself as a federal, secular and democratic party- an image that took a major setback with May 12 tragedy. In these elections it is seeking to show its humane face to the world. MQM is backing Musharraf to show the west that it is committed to fight Islamic extremism more than anyone else in Pakistan. It has fielded 330 odd candidates all over Pakistan in the National and Provincial assemblies. It is likely to win 10-25 seats in the National Assembly and will probably be the second largest party in Sindh.
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1.
nuzhat | February 19, 2008 at 12:50 am
Yasser, pretty good analysis. Some of the predications already seem to be well on their way to being realized. All I know is that it seems as if it is 1988 again!