Pak Tea House

Results of a new survey are interesting and confirm what we already know:

• Pakistani Support for Al Qaeda, Bin Laden Plunges;
• Moderate Parties Surge;
• 70 Percent Want President Musharraf to Resign:

“In dramatic reversal from just a few months ago, Pakistanis have turned against
Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and the Taliban. And in an equally stunning
turnaround, in advance of Pakistan’s upcoming February 18th elections, nearly
two-thirds of Pakistanis now intend to vote for the moderate political parties on
the ballot.

These results are from a new nationwide public opinion survey conducted from
January 19 to 29, 2008 across Pakistan, covering both urban and rural areas and
all provinces. The survey, with face-to-face interviews of 1,157 Pakistanis and a
margin of error of 3 percent, was conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow: The
Center for Public Opinion, D3 Systems and the Pakistan Institute for Public
Opinion.

The momentous events of the past several months—President Musharraf’s
crackdown against the press and opposition figures, increased terrorist attacks by
Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and the assassination of former Prime Minister
Benazir Bhutto—have resulted in a sea change in Pakistani public opinion.

Public Support for Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Bin Laden Drops by Half
Pakistani public support for Al Qaeda, the Taliban, Bin Laden and other radical
Islamist groups has dropped by half. TFT’s previous nationwide survey across
Pakistan in August 2007 (also conducted with D3 and PIPO) showed that
anywhere from a third to one-half of Pakistanis had a favorable opinion of Al
Qaeda and related radical Islamist groups. Those numbers have now plummeted
to the teens.

In August, 46 percent of Pakistanis had a favorable opinion of Bin Laden—that’s
down to 24 percent now, while Al Qaeda has dropped from 33 to 18 percent, the
Taliban from 38 percent to 19 percent, and other related radical Islamist groups
from nearly half of the Pakistani public with a favorable view to less than a
quarter today.

Significantly, if Al Qaeda were on the ballot as a political party in the February
18th election, only 1 percent of Pakistanis would vote for them. (The Taliban
would draw just 3 percent of the vote.)

70 percent of Pakistanis want Musharraf to immediately Resign;
58 percent Think Musharraf and the Government is Responsible for
Mrs. Bhutto’s Assassination

The Pakistani people give an equally stinging rebuke to President Musharraf and
his political allies. 70 percent want Musharraf to resign immediately as President.
More people think that Musharraf is responsible for the assassination of Benazir
Bhutto than any other person or group—indeed, 58 percent of Pakistanis think
Musharraf, government allied politicians and Pakistani government agencies are
responsible for the death of Benazir Bhutto. Only 7 percent believe Al Qaeda
and/or the Taliban is responsible, less than those who hold the United States
responsible.

Nearly Two-thirds of Pakistanis Will Vote for the Two Leading
Moderate Political Parties on the Ballot.

While the public has overwhelmingly turned against Musharraf, Bin Laden, Al
Qaeda and the Taliban, the people have also made a dramatic shift in support of
Pakistan’s moderate, democratic political forces.

In TFT’s previous August survey, less than 40 percent said they would vote for
the leading moderate political parties, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the
Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Now, 62 percent of Pakistanis said they would vote for the PPP and the PML-N.
Importantly, in the latest survey before the February 18th vote, nearly two-thirds
of Pakistanis said they would vote for the moderate parties of the PPP and PMLN.
If these parties garner two-thirds of the seats in Pakistan’s Parliament, they
will have enough votes potentially to remove President Musharraf from office.

Nawaz Sharif, leader of the PML-N, has also become the most popular political
figure in Pakistan, with a favorable rating of 73 percent and 18 percent
unfavorable (Musharraf stands at just 30 percent favorable; 62 percent
unfavorable.) Benazir Bhutto’s son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari enjoys the second
highest favorable rating at 64 percent, but the late Mrs. Bhutto’s husband does
not enjoy similarly high favorable ratings, with only 48 percent expressing a
favorable opinion, and 32 percent unfavorable. Of course, final election results
will be affected by voter turnout and events between now and the elections.
Events on the ground, such as the killing of Benazir Bhutto in December, can
substantially affect opinion and voting behavior.

Public Support for Al Qaeda, the Taliban and Bin Laden Also
Declining in the Northwest Frontier Province;
Opinion of the U.S. Still Negative, but Open to Change

In a possible harbinger of future success against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, they
are losing public support in areas in or near their home base. Favorable opinions
of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the North-West Frontier Province have dropped to
single digits. And while in TFT’s last survey, 70 percent in the NWFP expressed a
favorable opinion of Bin Laden—that’s now plunged to only 4 percent.
Declining support for terrorists does not mean, however, that Pakistanis back
American military action against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. 64 percent of

Pakistanis oppose the U.S. military pursuing Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters inside
Pakistan, though this is down from the 74 percent who expressed opposition in
TFT’s August 2007.

Opinions of the United States itself, however, have remained steadily negative,
with two-thirds voicing an unfavorable view. Yet as we found in our prior survey,
potential changes in American policies could result in profound changes in
opinions of the United States itself. Anywhere from a majority to more than twothirds
of Pakistanis said that policies ranging from increased American business
investment, free trade, educational aid, disaster assistance, medical care and
training and increased U.S. visas for Pakistanis would significantly improve their
opinion of the United States.

Pakistanis See their Country Moving in the Wrong Direction;
Democracy and Economy Highest Priorities

Overall, 82 percent of Pakistanis see their country headed in the wrong direction.
Ensuring an independent judiciary, free elections, a free press and improving the
Pakistani economy were their most important priorities—while support for
defeating Al Qaeda, Taliban and other Jihadi groups nearly doubled as a priority
from August.”

More details can be found here